Bank of America's Bold Outlook: Tech Bonds as a Top Play for 2024
In a strategic shift for 2024, Bank of America Securities is turning its attention to the debt side of the equation, specifically highlighting investment-grade corporate bonds of technology companies as one of its top 10 trades for the upcoming year. Michael Hartnett, the bank's investment strategist, emphasized the significance of owning tech balance sheets while steering clear of tech earnings per share (EPS) in 2024.
The "Magnificent 7" tech stocks—Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Tesla—have been instrumental in propelling the market upward in the current year. Notably, Nvidia has seen a remarkable surge of 232% year-to-date, with Meta Platforms rising by 190%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has also posted a substantial gain of 42% year-to-date.
Hartnett characterized his call on the bonds of major U.S. tech companies as a "great, underappreciated contrarian hedge" for a year that may witness rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and the potential for either a "hard landing" or "soft landing" for the economy. In the event of unexpected developments, such as a hard landing, Hartnett sees investment in the bonds of cash-rich companies as a prudent move.
Highlighting the risk of an abrupt economic slowdown, Hartnett suggests that the market's consensus view leans toward a soft landing. In the event of a hard landing being underestimated by investors, equities, particularly the largest positions in the Magnificent 7, would likely undergo deleveraging. Conversely, such a scenario would be positive for bonds, prompting a rotation into high-quality corporate bonds, with large-cap U.S. tech bonds standing out as a premier choice.
Bank of America's barbell strategy in the asset class involves not only buying investment-grade tech corporate bonds but also seeking exposure to resilient sectors, considering them as the "diamonds in the rough." Hartnett specifically mentions banks as part of this diversified approach. Overall, he anticipates a flow of money into bonds in the coming year, emphasizing the importance of a well-balanced investment strategy to navigate potential market shifts. CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting to this insightful outlook.
In conclusion, Bank of America Securities' bold outlook for 2024 involves a strategic pivot towards technology bonds, specifically emphasizing investment-grade corporate bonds of major tech companies. Michael Hartnett, the bank's investment strategist, sees this move as a prudent and underappreciated contrarian hedge in a year where unexpected events, such as a potential "hard landing" for the economy, could reshape the financial landscape.
The focus on tech balance sheets, as opposed to tech earnings per share, aligns with the bank's anticipation of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and potential economic shifts. The "Magnificent 7" tech stocks, including industry giants like Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft, have played a pivotal role in driving market gains, making their bonds an attractive option for investors looking for a high-quality corporate bond market.
Hartnett's foresight into the possibility of a hard landing, contrary to the consensus view of a soft landing, underscores the importance of a diversified investment strategy. In the event of an economic slowdown, the bonds of cash-rich companies, particularly those in the tech sector, are positioned as a solid hedge. Additionally, the barbell strategy, which includes exposure to resilient sectors like banks, adds further depth to the overall investment approach.
As markets navigate potential uncertainties in the coming year, Bank of America's strategic shift emphasizes the significance of a balanced portfolio that accounts for both the tech sector's stability and the resilience of other sectors. The anticipation of money flowing into bonds further underscores the bank's proactive approach to position investors for a dynamic and potentially transformative 2024.